The illusion of 'doing something'
Action bias is our instinct to act when we feel uncomfortable, even when doing nothing is the better option. Markets are excellent at creating that discomfort — falling prices, loud headlines, a friend's story about the fund that doubled.
The pattern is remarkably consistent. People sell after a fall, when prices are low, and buy after a run, when prices are high. Each decision feels sensible at the time. Together, they quietly turn temporary falls into permanent losses.
The biggest cost in most portfolios isn't fees. It's the decisions made in the middle of a fall.
The mathematics of the 'best days' penalty
Long-term market returns don't arrive evenly. A large share of them comes from a small number of very strong days — and those days cluster right next to the worst ones, in the middle of the panic.
That's the trap. To dodge the falls you have to be out of the market exactly when the rebound happens. Miss a handful of the strongest days across two decades and the compounding damage is severe, even though you were invested for almost the whole period.
A handful of days
Missing just the strongest days over 20 years can cut the final result by more than half
The friction costs: tax, spreads and drag
Every trade has a cost beyond the obvious. Selling a growth asset can crystallise capital gains tax — tax on the growth, brought forward to today instead of being deferred. That's money leaving the portfolio that can no longer compound.
Then there's the spread (the small gap between buying and selling prices) and brokerage. None of it looks large on a single trade. Repeated dozens of times a year, it becomes a permanent headwind.
What discipline looks like instead
| Headline-driven trading | Rules-based rebalancing | |
|---|---|---|
| Trigger to act | News and emotion | Set drift limits and reviews |
| Typical timing | Sells low, buys high | Trims high, tops up low |
| Tax outcome | Gains realised often | Gains realised deliberately |
| Trading costs | High and repeated | Low and planned |
| Time in market | Interrupted | Continuous |