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The Cost of Action: Why Constant Trading Destroys Compounding

Market Myths & Biases4 min read

The cost of stepping out: market timing simulator

See what missing just a handful of the market's best days does to 20 years of growth.

$

Held for 20 years.

What you did along the way

Where $100,000 ends up after 20 years

Ending balance

$640,000

Cost of stepping out

$0 (0%)

Return per year

9.7% p.a.

The market's biggest gains tend to arrive in sudden bursts during the scariest periods. Staying in your seat is the price of admission for long-term compound growth.

Why missing a few days matters so much

The strongest up-days usually sit right next to the worst down-days. Selling to avoid the falls almost always means missing the rebound that follows, and a handful of missing days compounds into decades of lost growth.

Estimates and illustrations only

This tool uses simplified, rounded illustrative figures over a 20-year period to show the shape of the effect. It ignores fees, tax and the specific returns of any real market or product. Results are estimates and illustrations only — not advice, and not a guarantee of any outcome. Consider speaking with an adviser before making changes to your investments.

The illusion of 'doing something'

Action bias is our instinct to act when we feel uncomfortable, even when doing nothing is the better option. Markets are excellent at creating that discomfort — falling prices, loud headlines, a friend's story about the fund that doubled.

The pattern is remarkably consistent. People sell after a fall, when prices are low, and buy after a run, when prices are high. Each decision feels sensible at the time. Together, they quietly turn temporary falls into permanent losses.

The biggest cost in most portfolios isn't fees. It's the decisions made in the middle of a fall.

The mathematics of the 'best days' penalty

Long-term market returns don't arrive evenly. A large share of them comes from a small number of very strong days — and those days cluster right next to the worst ones, in the middle of the panic.

That's the trap. To dodge the falls you have to be out of the market exactly when the rebound happens. Miss a handful of the strongest days across two decades and the compounding damage is severe, even though you were invested for almost the whole period.

A handful of days

Missing just the strongest days over 20 years can cut the final result by more than half

The friction costs: tax, spreads and drag

Every trade has a cost beyond the obvious. Selling a growth asset can crystallise capital gains tax — tax on the growth, brought forward to today instead of being deferred. That's money leaving the portfolio that can no longer compound.

Then there's the spread (the small gap between buying and selling prices) and brokerage. None of it looks large on a single trade. Repeated dozens of times a year, it becomes a permanent headwind.

What discipline looks like instead

Headline-driven tradingRules-based rebalancing
Trigger to actNews and emotionSet drift limits and reviews
Typical timingSells low, buys highTrims high, tops up low
Tax outcomeGains realised oftenGains realised deliberately
Trading costsHigh and repeatedLow and planned
Time in marketInterruptedContinuous
Illustrative comparison only. Not advice or a recommendation.

Common client questions

This information is general in nature and doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider whether it's appropriate for you before acting on it. Any calculators or simulators shown are estimates and illustrations only — not advice, and not a guarantee of future outcomes.

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