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Why Don't We Just Buy CBA? (The Concentration Trap)

Portfolio Strategy3 min read

Concentration vs. Diversification Simulator

Move the slider to see how a single-stock tilt changes the ride you'd have to sit through.

20%
100% diversified global model100% single stock

Simulated worst fall

-41%

Deepest peak-to-trough drop in this illustration

Recovery horizon

~3.4 yrs

Illustrative time to get back to the previous high

Portfolio risk level

Measured

A sensible tilt. The single holding can add flavour without deciding the outcome of your plan.

How this illustration works

This tool uses two simplified anchor points to show the difference concentration can make. The “diversified global model” is based on a broad multi-asset portfolio with global exposure. The “single blue-chip share” is based on a concentrated position in one large Australian bank.

The figures are long-term, illustrative estimates — not a back-test of a specific 10- or 20-year period, and not a prediction of future returns. Real outcomes will vary, and past performance is not a reliable guide to the future.

The aim is to make the trade-off visible, not to give a precise forecast. Your adviser can walk through how this applies to your actual portfolio.

Illustration only

This simulator is an illustration based on simplified, fictional assumptions. It is not based on a specific historical period, back-test or forecast, and it is not a guarantee of any future outcome. The figures are intended to show the directional difference between concentration and diversification, not to predict the performance of any real portfolio, company or market index. Consider speaking with your adviser before making any investment decisions.

Why one great company still feels safer than it is

Most of us know the big Australian banks. We bank with them, we see the branches, we've watched the share price for years. That familiarity is comforting — and our brains quietly translate comfort into low risk.

But a share price doesn't care how well you know the brand. A single company carries risks that diversification can remove almost for free: a bad lending cycle, a regulatory finding, a technology failure, or simply a decade where the market prefers other sectors.

Diversification is the only free lunch in investing — it can lower the bumpiness of the ride without you needing to pick winners.

Concentration risk in plain English

Concentration risk means having too much of your wealth riding on one outcome. Australian shares are roughly a small slice of the world's listed market value, and our market leans heavily on banks and resources. If you hold one bank only, you're taking a very narrow bet on a very narrow part of a very narrow market.

A diversified global model does something quietly powerful: it owns thousands of businesses across countries, currencies and industries, so no single failure can define your result.

~2%

Australia is only 2% of the global market. 98% of the world’s companies are outside our borders.

What this looks like side by side

Single blue-chip shareDiversified global model
Number of businesses1Thousands
Main riskCompany & sector specificBroad market movements
Typical worst-case fallDeeper and longerShallower and shorter
Recovery depends onOne company's decisionsThe global economy over time
Income sourceOne dividend streamMany dividend streams
Illustrative comparison only. Figures are examples, not forecasts.

How we use this in practice

We're not anti-CBA, or anti any particular company. We simply size positions so that being wrong about one holding is survivable and being right about the long-term growth of global business is what drives your outcome.

If you already hold a large single-stock position — often from an employer plan, an inheritance or a long-held family holding — the conversation is usually about how to unwind it thoughtfully, with tax and timing in mind, rather than all at once.

Common client questions

This information is general in nature and doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider whether it's appropriate for you before acting on it. Any calculators or simulators shown are estimates and illustrations only — not advice, and not a guarantee of future outcomes.

Where to next

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